Israel and Iran and nuclear weapons.
This in the news today: http://today.reuters.com/news/articlenews.aspx?type=topNews&storyID=2007-01-07T094811Z_01_L06759405_RTRUKOC_0_US-IRAN-NUCLEAR-ISRAEL.xml&WTmodLoc=NewsHome-C1-topNews-2
I want to take a look at Iran's quest for nuclear weapons and American policy regarding Israel. Let me first make clear that I'm not an Ahmedinejad apologist.
With that disclaimer out of the way, I will now show how something is fucked up with American policy.
One of the following two cases must be true. In each of which case something is wrong.
1. Israel has nuclear weapons and is willing to use them in a first strike: Then Iran has no rational choice but pursue a nuclear weapon. The only way to induce Iran give this up is to neutralize its risk. That is, strip Israel of its weapons. The threat of sanctions does not make a country like Iran prefer no nuclear deterrent against a nuclear enemy. It would be irrational to expose itself to Israel's nuclear threat.
2. Israel has nuclear weapons but will only only use it in a second strike (i.e. deterrent): Ever seen Dr. Strangelove? As any strategist will tell you, a deterrent is meaningless unless it is not only known by both sides but common knowledge (I know that you know that I know that you know ...). It's a recipe for disaster (and very likely a lie) if Israel plans on using these weapons as deterrents.
Either way something is wrong.
